Current Market Trends

Are we in a Real Estate Bubble and is the Bubble About to Pop?

Monday, September 27, 2010

The Media sure seems to think so. Every time I turn on the television that’s all I hear, quite reminiscent of the ‘D’ word being dropped every 5 seconds as we fell into our last recession. The media sells hype and unfortunately, sometimes the hype self-perpetuates into hysteria and panic.

Let take an analytical look at what exactly has happened to Real Estate in the GTA this year thus far:

The market closed out the year at $411,931. The statistics below show what happened in 2010, both the end of the month numbers and the mid month numbers. This will provide a little better actual tracking than just the end of the month numbers.

These are the average prices of single family homes recorded in the Greater Toronto Area for 2010:

2010
1 January...... $411,931
15 January..... $395,307
30 January..... $409,058
15 February..... $429,997
30 February..... $431,509
15 March........ $440,153
30 March........ $434,696
15 April........ $430,271
30 April........ $437,600
15 May.......... $448,641
30 May..........$446,593
15 June......... $437,039
30 June......... $435,034
31 July………..$420,482
15 August…….$412,934

Let’s have a look at the market. It rose from January and peaked at $448,641 in May. Then, it tipped over and lost some of those gains. It now stands at $412,934 or a $35,707 decline since May. That’s a 7.96% decrease.

However, let’s look at the good side. The market started the year at $411,931, and it now sits at $412,934. That’s a $1,003 increase so far this year. Actually, a miniscule percentage gain! So, to a certain extent, you could say that values are holding steady.

Looking at the facts, there are two possible news headlines:

Real estate market drops 8%,
or
Real estate market holds firm.

Which one do you like? You know, of course, which ones you have read in the media.

 

Topics

 

Archives

 

"Paul's professionalism and demeanor allow for both successful business and personal relationships with his clients. He's dedicated to understanding the needs of his clients, and works with them to provide solutions they need. I recommend Paul with the highest regard."
~ Ryan Shoemaker, IGM Financial