Current Market Trends

Are we in a Real Estate Bubble and is the Bubble About to Pop?

Monday, September 27, 2010

The Media sure seems to think so. Every time I turn on the television that’s all I hear, quite reminiscent of the ‘D’ word being dropped every 5 seconds as we fell into our last recession. The media sells hype and unfortunately, sometimes the hype self-perpetuates into hysteria and panic.

Let take an analytical look at what exactly has happened to Real Estate in the GTA this year thus far:

The market closed out the year at $411,931. The statistics below show what happened in 2010, both the end of the month numbers and the mid month numbers. This will provide a little better actual tracking than just the end of the month numbers.

These are the average prices of single family homes recorded in the Greater Toronto Area for 2010:

2010
1 January...... $411,931
15 January..... $395,307
30 January..... $409,058
15 February..... $429,997
30 February..... $431,509
15 March........ $440,153
30 March........ $434,696
15 April........ $430,271
30 April........ $437,600
15 May.......... $448,641
30 May..........$446,593
15 June......... $437,039
30 June......... $435,034
31 July………..$420,482
15 August…….$412,934

Let’s have a look at the market. It rose from January and peaked at $448,641 in May. Then, it tipped over and lost some of those gains. It now stands at $412,934 or a $35,707 decline since May. That’s a 7.96% decrease.

However, let’s look at the good side. The market started the year at $411,931, and it now sits at $412,934. That’s a $1,003 increase so far this year. Actually, a miniscule percentage gain! So, to a certain extent, you could say that values are holding steady.

Looking at the facts, there are two possible news headlines:

Real estate market drops 8%,
or
Real estate market holds firm.

Which one do you like? You know, of course, which ones you have read in the media.

 

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